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Is anchoring holding you back?

One of the challenges of financial planning is its complexity. Not only is it mathematically layered, but it’s also fraught with bias and emotional influence. For most of us, we only scratch the surface of about seven areas of financial planning and allow experts to make recommendations and decisions that will hopefully create a better financial position for us in the future.

When it comes to investing (just one area in about seven), there are loads of biases that can either help or hinder the protection and growth of our assets. This makes asset management and investment planning a constantly evolving landscape and requires several types of niche specialists.

Anchoring is a cognitive bias that often comes into play when we are trying to establish the value of something.

This doesn’t only apply to investing – it applies to commodities and services across the board. Every day, we rely on the anchoring bias to help us form a perception of value, from standing in the fresh foods aisle to standing in a second-hand car lot or calling around to find a plumber to fix a leak.

“People make estimates by starting from an initial value that is adjusted to yield the final answer,” explained Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in a 1974 paper. “The initial value, or starting point, may be suggested by the formulation of the problem, or it may be the result of a partial computation. In either case, adjustments are typically insufficient. That is, different starting points yield different estimates, which are biased toward the initial values.”

This means that we tend to rely too heavily on the very first piece of information we learn, which can seriously impact the decision we end up making. And, living in a world where we have far more access to information than ever before, complicates our decision-making exponentially.

So – can we avoid it? Well, according to Investopedia, not entirely. Here are some ideas they offer to manage our anchoring bias.

Studies have shown that some factors can mitigate anchoring. Still, it is difficult to avoid altogether, even when we are aware of the bias and deliberately try to avoid it. In experimental studies, telling people about anchoring, cautioning them that it can bias their judgment, and even offering them monetary incentives to avoid anchoring can reduce, but not eliminate, the effect of anchoring.

If you are selling something or negotiating a salary, you can start with a higher price than you expect to get as it will set an anchor that will tend to pull the final price up. If you are buying something or a hiring manager, you would instead start with a lowball level to induce the anchoring effect lower.

Ultimately, if we can’t avoid anchoring, we should at least try to use it to our advantage. In financial planning, we have a process called due diligence. This helps us obtain as much relevant information as possible to a specific decision to help us create a close-to-accurate anchor.

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The miracle of Meraki

In every culture and creed, there are traditions and philosophies about how to experience the best that life has in store for us, whilst overcoming trials and tragedies. From mindfulness to healthy eating, from exercise to stress management – we are often reminded that what we put in is what we get out.

Somewhere, in all of these pragmatic approaches, we can lose sight of the meaning of what we’re putting in, and become focused on the output. This is especially true when it comes to our money.

It’s not often that we attach meaning to money, and when we do, it’s attached to the money we have right now. We like to plan for the money we hope to have, but we are easily detached from the relevance and meaning because it’s a future goal.

This is where the Greek’s concept of Meraki is really helpful!

Meraki refers to the soul, creativity, or love that we put into our work, family, and other activities. It is the essence of yourself that you put into your work. It helps us find meaning in our money before we’ve earned it – not just for a future event.

There is a well-known quote by Kahlil Gibran – he said that “work is love made visible”. Meraki is all about a choice that we can make right now, today; a choice to find meaning in what we’re doing. When we love what we’re doing, or appreciate how it’s helping others (because some tasks will always be boring…), we will experience value and likely become considerably better at what we’re doing.

It doesn’t only help us enrich the day ahead; we can also start to include it in our planning. We can start to look for work and activity that we will truly find meaningful. When we pour our soul (blood, sweat and tears) into a project, we value the journey, not just the outcome. The whole experience becomes more purposeful and significant, allowing us to find fulfilment and be more creative.

Passion is a wonderful stimulant for maintaining positive mental health. Whenever we deal with people who truly love what they’re doing, whether they’re a barista or bookkeeper, an artist or an attorney, a teacher or a turner-and-fitter – people who are passionate are a pleasure to be around.

Remember, when it comes to making and managing your money, it’s not just about the meaning you get out – it’s about the meaning you put in.

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Sandwich generation

The sandwich generation refers to working-age individuals who are in the precarious position of looking after their growing children and caring for elderly parents. 

They are effectively “sandwiched” between the responsibilities of caring for their children, who require financial, physical, and emotional support, and caring for their ageing parents, who may be unwell, incapable of performing certain activities, or in need of financial assistance.

Increasing lifespans and having children at an older age have contributed to the sandwich generation phenomenon, as it has more societal acceptance for adult children to live at home. With the added pressures of managing one’s own career and personal issues and the need to contribute to one’s own retirement, the individuals of the sandwich generation are under significant financial and emotional stress. 

In some cases, this generation has to postpone their own retirement planning because of the added financial obligations. There are some steps that members of the sandwich generation can take to lessen the burden. 

The first step is to have a financial discussion with all parties involved. For ageing parents, the expectation is that a lifetime of work has provided them with a pension or a nest egg that will help them cover part of elderly-care costs. If this is not the case, you should get assistance as soon as possible.

Even if finances are not currently an issue, they will become one unless you put proper attention into estate planning. If one family member is shouldering the majority of the burden of caring for an ageing parent, the estate should be discussed in that light. Although the sibling may not want to be financially compensated for their care, failing to confront the issue will almost certainly lead to bitterness among the family when parents pass away.

The goal for adult children is to encourage them to contribute financially to household costs and responsibilities, and move towards independence. There are several methods to promote this, but the simplest is to set the expectation that they will pay near-market rates for room and board. This eliminates the “mom and dad discount,” which permits them to live a more lavish lifestyle than their resources can sustain in the long run.

Many of those in the sandwich generation do not want to put their children in the same situation as they are. If you don’t want to rely on your children to care for you in the future, you should consider how you would pay for your own care. With the expense of care continuing to rise, it’s critical to start thinking about how you’ll pay for it now.

At the end of the day, there are no wrong or right ways, only paths of least resistance and greatest joy. Through communication, patience and understanding, you can make almost any situation work out for the best.

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The nourishment of nature

A breath of fresh air, the sun on our faces, bare feet in the sand. Spending time outside can provide many small pleasures, which all leave us feeling revitalised. Whether it’s sipping ice-cold lemonade in our backyard or hiking up a mountain, spending time in nature has numerous benefits beyond the obvious. 

There have been many studies outlining the positive mental effects of being immersed in nature. For example, the University of Michigan conducted a study that revealed students who regularly went for a nature walk had improved short term memory. Or consider this Stanford study, which found that walking outside reduces stress. Even if it’s just for five minutes a day, being outside has a calming effect on our brains.

Let’s take a look at some of the other benefits of being in nature.

Improved Sleep

Our body can better regulate sleep patterns when we spend time in natural light. When the sun sets, our brains release the proper amount of melatonin to aid in a restful night’s sleep. (Which is also why staring into a backlit cellphone screen before bed keeps our brain wired and makes it harder to sleep!)

Strengthened Immune System

Going outside and getting adequate sunlight has been demonstrated in studies to help enhance the immune system. Make time to go for a walk outside or have some fun in the sun to help you battle sickness and stay healthy.

Inspired Creativity

Spending time outside allows you to find inspiration in the beautiful sights, smells, and sounds of nature. Science backs this up as well, demonstrating that spending time outside can boost our ability to think more creatively.

A walk does not have to be solely for the purpose of walking. You could, for example, conduct your next one-on-one meeting while meandering through a park or walking to a coffee shop, thereby killing two birds with one stone.

If you don’t believe you have time, it’s possibly because you consider something as simple as a stroll around the park to be a chore or not income-generating. Or you regard it as a waste of time and effort that you simply cannot afford. 

Investing time in nature does not have to be complicated or costly. If anything – consider it an investment that you can’t afford to pass up!

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Crypto can be taxing

One of the early appeals for cryptocurrencies was that they would not be taxed as they are not fiat currencies (yet), in that they are not owned by a country or used for trade inside of geographical tender regulations.

However, as these platforms grow and develop, we are seeing that this is most likely not the case. According to several governments, cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are classified as “intangible assets” – as opposed to, say, property or currency. 

These definitions differ slightly in different regions, but for the most part, gains or losses related to cryptocurrencies can be classified into three categories or scenarios, each of which could result in different tax consequences:

  1. A cryptocurrency can be acquired through so-called “mining”. Mining is conducted by the verification of transactions in a computer-generated public ledger, achieved through the solving of complex computer algorithms. The “miner” is rewarded with ownership of new coins by verifying these transactions, which become part of the networked ledger. This gives rise to an immediate accrual or receipt on successful mining of the cryptocurrency. This means that until the newly acquired cryptocurrency is sold or exchanged for cash, it is held as trading stock, which can be realised through either a normal cash or barter transaction.

  2. Investors can exchange local currency for a cryptocurrency (or vice versa) by using cryptocurrency exchanges, which are essentially markets for cryptocurrencies, or through private transactions.

  3. Goods or services can be exchanged for cryptocurrencies. This transaction is regarded as a barter transaction. Therefore the regional barter transaction rules apply. 

While the initial receipt of cryptocurrency from mining is classified as income for tax purposes, revenue services may apply a distinct set of tax rules to the cryptocurrency’s subsequent disposition. Short-term trading to generate daily wages is considered income for tax purposes, but long-term investments (usually exceeding three years) are subject to capital gains tax. 

We are already reading reports of treasuries extending their cryptocurrency audit and detection services by many global media outlets. In addition, some have publicly listed employment opportunities geared explicitly towards cryptocurrency tracking.

According to recommendations, taxpayers who treat cryptocurrency transactions in a way that is inconsistent with their respective tax laws may face penalties. As a result, you must stay up to date on the newest developments in crypto tax legislation if you own crypto.

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Dualistic Thinking

Dualistic thinking assumes a universe where there are only two opposing, mutually incompatible options or realities. This type of thinking is either/or, good/bad, negative/positive, and has a significant impact on our beliefs and behaviours.

Our development is stymied by dualistic thinking. The sooner we can break free from this either/or mindset, the sooner we can nurture greater success in the workplace and in our personal lives.

This either/or mentality contributes to our fears and concerns by presuming the false restriction that no other choices exist. We might feel confined, perceiving little freedom when we think in this way.

We may feel trapped or powerless in a circumstance when our options, choices, and determination appear to be limited. We tend to react emotionally in such cases, sometimes not even aware of the reasons why. 

Dualistic thinking hinders our personal and professional progress because we rarely allow for a range of options. We rate the situations and people around us on a binary scale. We reduce our capacity to see alternative possibilities by limiting ourselves to only two options.

Our psychological bias is a significant hazard of dualistic thinking. The “snake bite” effect, for example, occurs when an investor has a bad experience with an investment that causes them to be more cautious in future investment decisions, lowering their return potential.

The fear of regret and feeling like we have made a decision that is inherently ‘wrong’ leads to this bias. One way to counter this effect is to adopt a strategy that closely adheres to predetermined investing criteria and eliminates most of the decision-making process on what to purchase, when to purchase, and how much to purchase.

Using rules-based trading techniques decreases the likelihood of an investor making a discretionary decision based on previous investment success.

We create unrealistic expectations when we consider simply “good” and “bad”. Whatever decision you make will have implications, some of which will be unexpected.

Those implications may appear to be a choice between what you leave behind against what you get, or there may be aspects of both that you appreciate. It’s crucial to recognise that it’s often impractical to expect our actions to only have two possible outcomes; we should always look for a third outcome to help balance our expectations.

Once we have realised this, we can concentrate on what appears to be the best course of action for our personal circumstances.

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Things don’t get easier – we become more resilient

Life is uncharted. Maps can only be made from where we’ve been – not where we have yet to go.

The only certainty is uncertainty, and we can experience potentially life-altering choices on a daily basis. Each nebulous choice we make brings with it a unique flood of thoughts and emotions. Yet, we generally adapt well, over time, to life-changing situations. This is, in part, thanks to resilience.

Psychologists define resilience as the process of adapting well in the face of adversity. As much as resilience involves endurance against difficult experiences, it also empowers us to grow and improve along the way.

Resilience is learned; it involves behaviours, thoughts, and actions that we can all develop. Improving resilience takes time and intentional effort, much like building a muscle.

To increase your capacity for resilience, here are four core components on which to focus: connection, wellness, healthy thinking, and meaning.

Connection

In the middle of challenges, connecting with empathic and understanding people may remind you that you are not alone. Concentrate on locating trustworthy and sympathetic people who can validate (or empathise with) your feelings, as this can help you develop resilience.

Wellness

Self-care may be a trendy buzzphrase, but it’s also a proven strategy for improving mental health and resilience. This is because stress is both physical and emotional. Positive lifestyle variables such as a healthy diet, adequate sleep, plenty of water, and regular exercise can help your body adapt to stress and lessen the impact of negative emotions like anxiety and sadness.

Healthy Thinking

How you think has a significant impact on how you feel and how resilient you are when confronted with challenges. Identify areas of illogical thinking, such as a tendency to catastrophise problems or a belief that the universe is conspiring against you, and replace them with more balanced and realistic thinking habits.

For example, if you’re feeling powerless in the face of difficulty, tell yourself that what occurred to you isn’t a predictor of what will happen in the future. You may not be able to affect the outcome of a highly stressful situation, but you can control how you understand and react to it. Remember, we can map out the past with amazing accuracy, but what happens in the next moment will always hold the potential for something radically new.

Meaning

You can gain a sense of purpose, promote self-worth, connect with people, and tangibly help others by volunteering at a local homeless shelter or just supporting a friend in need, all of which can empower you to build your own resilience.

Resilience is present in any aspect of our lives where we are facing adversity. Be it personal, financial or elsewhere. But the underlying principles of forging resilience are the same. Build a network of strong connections, focus on personal wellness, keep a healthy mindset, and find your meaning.

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Don’t be a lemming

One long-held belief is that lemmings purposefully run off cliffs in their millions. This myth has become a metaphor for the behaviour of crowds of individuals who follow each other blindly, regardless of the consequences. Herd instincts are prevalent in all parts of life, including the financial industry when investors follow what they feel other investors are doing rather than conducting their own research.

A herd instinct is a type of behaviour in which people react to and follow the activities of others. This is comparable to how animal groups react to danger – whether real or imagined.

Following the crowd or herding can lead trends to amplify well beyond fundamentals. Prices can skyrocket when investors flood into ventures for fear of losing out or because they have heard something positive but haven’t done their own due research.

This unreasonable optimism can lead to asset bubbles that eventually burst.

In the opposite direction, sell-offs can lead to market crashes when people rush to sell simply because others are doing so, a phenomenon known as panic selling.

If most people are heading in one direction, an individual may feel as if they are making a mistake by walking in the opposite direction. They may also be afraid of being singled out for refusing to join the bandwagon. Although herding is instinctive, there are strategies to avoid following the mob, especially if you believe you will be making a mistake. It necessitates self-discipline as well as a few considerations:

  • Doing your own research is essential; study the facts and data and draw your own conclusions. Once you’ve completed your due diligence, then you can look at other people’s interpretations.
  • Inquire about how and why individuals are doing things. Are they making decisions based on the movement of the herd? If you believe it is the wrong decision for you, don’t be afraid to go against the grain.
  • If you’re distracted or emotionally charged, whether from stress or external factors, postpone making decisions.

Making investing decisions based on logical, objective criteria and not allowing emotions to take over is a solid strategy to avoid herd instinct. Another option is to use a contrarian approach, in which you purchase when others are panicking, taking advantage of bargains, and selling when excitement leads to overvaluation. As Jonathan Sacks once said, “The wisest rule in investment is: when others are selling, buy. When others are buying, sell.”

At the end of the day, it’s human nature to want to fit in, so resisting the impulse to stray from your plan might be challenging. This is where financial planners step in, serving as a sounding board for your decision-making process.

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I’m not sure I want to know

There’s a story that was told many years ago (it may or may not be true…) about a Microsoft call-centre agent and their call with a deeply irate customer. Having recently purchased a computer that came pre-installed with Windows, the customer called to find out why his computer would not respond.

It goes a little like this:

Call-center Agent (CCA): Thank you for verifying your purchase; how can we help you today?

Customer (C): My computer isn’t responding, and I’ve tried everything!

CCA: Thank you for that feedback. What do you see on your screen?

C: Nothing!! Absolutely nothing!

CCA: Please press control, alt and delete together. Has that helped?

C: No – nothing has happened. I’ve tried all of this already!!

CCA: Is there an error message on your screen?

C: No – the screen is just black.

CCA: Is your screen on? Do you see the power light on in the bottom corner?

C: No – there is no power light on. (becoming more amiable) I don’t think the screen is on.

CCA: Is it plugged into the back of your computer correctly?

C: Hold on, I’ll follow the cable and check. (a few seconds pass) I can’t see behind the computer; it’s too dark.

CCA: Are you able to turn the lights on to check?

C: No, I can’t; we’re currently having load-shedding.

Sometimes, our biggest problems are our most basic problems. And, we can’t always see them ourselves until someone else reminds us. When it comes to financial planning and managing our money, it’s easy to become side-tracked by big ideas, fancy strategies, forecasting and spreadsheets, and overlook the basic starting blocks of budgeting. We miss what’s happening right in front of us.

Budgeting helps us stay connected to what’s happening with our money right now. So – why don’t we do it religiously?

Carl Richards, a regular contributor to the New York Times, shares some reasons for why we allow this to happen.

1- It’s not fun.

True. But remember, as Stephen Covey says, “If the ladder is not leaning against the right wall, every step we take just gets us to the wrong place faster.” Budgeting is how we make sure our spending ladder is leaning against the right wall.

2- I already know where my money is going.

No, you don’t. Sorry. Unless you track your spending, you don’t have a clue where your money goes. Everyone I’ve ever seen go through the process of tracking spending for 30 days usually ends up saying some version of, “I had no idea I was spending that much on X.”

3- I’m not sure I want to know.

I think this is the biggest mental hurdle. The reality is that as we become aware of what and how we’re spending, we’ll find some things that surprise and bother us. Then we have to decide: Do we want to change?

Carl goes on to suggest four ways to get back to the basics of budgeting:

1- Try tracking your spending for 30 days.

2- Don’t stress about what app to use.

3- Just carry around a pen and a little notebook, and each time you make a purchase, write down what you spent and how it made you feel.

4- At the end of the month, go back through your notebook and just notice. Become aware. That’s it.

The glamorous side of managing our money is making purchases that make us feel better – not in tracking our spending. But, the feel-good side of managing our money is in regaining and maintaining control of what we can do with our money, which starts with budgeting.

As Carl said, it’s not about making significant changes. At first, it’s just about becoming more aware and noticing what’s going on, noticing things that we may have missed or overlooked. 

The result is that we will be more mindful and have more control over our money; and that’s worth knowing.

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How to do it in the 4IR

“But we didn’t need it, and we turned out fine.” 

We hear this line more than we should. From tap water to technology, from diets to devices, from gender identification to genetic modification, from schooling to selecting a coach or advisor, our peers and mentors can often throw this line in our face – but we didn’t need it, and we turned out fine.

It can leave our sails windless and stall our engines before we’ve even selected a gear.

But here’s the thing: the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) poses one challenge that previous generations have never had to meet: prolific access.

Access to what? Everything.

One of the significant changes that we’ve seen in the world around us over the last two decades is the overwhelmingly enlarged access to information. Before the profuse use of mobile technology and cloud-based servers, data was stored in books and brochures, libraries and archives, making it harder to access. Now, we literally have the world (wide web) wirelessly at our fingertips. And those born this century have not known anything different.

Information is now so readily available that we have a new challenge: how do we find the valuable information that is relevant to us right now? On top of that, we have comparisons that we could never quickly draw before; like how the stock market performed last year, in 2008, 1998 and 1928. Heck, we can even compare the Bitcoin bubble to the Tulip bubble in 1636.

DIY is no longer about putting up new bookshelves in your bedroom; it’s about choosing, managing and prevailing on virtual shelves (platforms) for social engagement, investing, shopping, job hunting, learning, travel and just about anything else you’d like.

We are overwhelmed, our parents are overwhelmed, our children are overwhelmed.

The expectations are no longer what they were in 2004. Our opportunities are considerably more expansive, and the perceived consequences of ‘getting it wrong’ are infinitely more shareable. Now, the most dangerous words are: “We’ve always done it this way.”

We need to encourage each other to do things differently, to rely on experts, advisers, mentors and coaches to help us navigate this new revolution. These helpful people are not just for the wealthy or well-connected; they’re for all of us.

As our connections grow, we need to be willing to do the inner work of building our character and protecting our values. It’s not about changing fundamental truths; it’s about changing our perspectives about how big the truth really is.

Making decisions in the 4IR is no longer about extracting one choice, it’s about engaging in conversations.

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